Our mission is to help guide the world toward a more prosperous, stable and sustainable economy. We are the leading developers of a radically different alternative to conventional economics — called complexity economics — that provides better predictions and deeper insights than traditional economics.

Complexity economics treats the economy as a complex adaptive system, driven by the interactions of diverse, heterogeneous agents with bounded rationality. The economy is modeled directly by simulating the behavior and interactions of agents (such as households, firms, and governments) at a highly granular level. Simulation allows us to address problems that are intractable in mainstream economics without making strong assumptions like utility maximization, rationality and equilibrium. In turn, this makes our models and corresponding outputs more realistic and useful for decision-makers. 

We are empirical scientists who ground our work in data, and our job is to make predictions using the best tools and methods available. Our approach takes full advantage of progress in computation, big data, and machine learning to make more reliable analyses and better predictions. However, predictions are useless unless one knows how good they are, so we work hard to validate and assess the quality of our predictions whenever possible. We also make our track record publicly available. 

Our current focus is the green energy transition. Our scientists were among the first to correctly forecast the rapid progress of renewables, starting 15 years ago, and our track record continues to be excellent. We make forecasts both by carefully studying past technology transitions and by simulating the future energy transition via agent-based modelling. Our models help answer key questions such as: How quickly will the transition happen? Which technologies are worth betting on? Which corporate strategies lead to sustainable profits through the transition? What are the supply chain vulnerabilities from a possible disorderly transition and enhanced climate-based physical risks? What will be the global and local economic impacts? Will we have the labor force we need, where and when we need it? How can government policies help accelerate the transition? 

We are taking a unique approach, and success could revolutionize the way the climate transition is modeled. Our academic work has helped make clear that climate change is not just a burden — it has become an opportunity for both profit-making in private enterprise and economic development. We are ready to provide the insights that energy companies, investors, and government policy makers need to take advantage of the many opportunities in the upcoming transition while avoiding the potential pitfalls.