MACROECONOMIC & LABOR SIMULATOR
A macroeconomic model that is built from the real economy
Most macroeconomic models work top-down, imposing aggregate relationships that smooth over the firm-level and household-level dynamics driving real outcomes. Macrocosm's model works bottom-up: GDP, inflation, employment, and labor market transitions emerge from simulated agent behavior to capture trends, even when the economy is pushed out of equilibrium.
KEY CAPABILITIES
KEY CAPABILITIES
01
Generate forecasts for GDP, inflation, employment, and financial stability using bottom-up simulation of firm and household behaviour — not statistical extrapolation from historical patterns. Forecasts reflect structural dynamics, not just momentum.
Forecast key macro indicators from behavioral first principles
01
Generate forecasts for GDP, inflation, employment, and financial stability using bottom-up simulation of firm and household behaviour — not statistical extrapolation from historical patterns. Forecasts reflect structural dynamics, not just momentum.
Forecast key macro indicators from behavioral first principles
02
Capture how economies respond to shocks in ways that aggregate models cannot — including tipping points, amplification effects, and recovery paths that diverge from historical precedent. Particularly relevant for scenarios with no close historical analog.
Model non-linear responses to shocks
03
Simulate how workers move — or can't — between occupations given real skills proximity, geographic constraints, and labour market structure. Surface which groups are least able to adapt, not just which industries are declining.
Model occupational mobility and labour market transitions
04
Ground macroeconomic forecasts in the sectoral and firm-level dynamics that produce them — linking output, employment, and price forecasts to the industries, balance sheet conditions, and workforce transitions that drive aggregate outcomes.
Connect macro outcomes to sectoral and labour dynamics
01
Forecast key macro indicators from behavioral first principles
Forecast GDP, inflation, employment, and financial stability using a bottom-up simulation of firm and household behavior rather than statistical extrapolation from historical patterns.
02
Model nonlinear responses to shocks
Capture tipping points, amplification effects, and recovery paths other models miss. This is particularly relevant for scenarios with little historical precedent.
03
Model occupational mobility and labor market transitions
Simulate how workers move between occupations given their skills, proximity, geographic constraints, and labor market structure. Surface which groups are least able to adapt.
04
Connect macro outcomes to sectoral and labor dynamics
Ground macroeconomic forecasts in the sectoral and firm-level dynamics that produce them by linking output, employment, and price forecasts to the industries, balance sheet conditions, and workforce transitions that drive aggregate outcomes.
WHO USES IT
CENTRAL BANKS
See the economy as it is
See the economy as it is
Standard DSGE and VAR models assume equilibrium and smooth adjustment. Macrocosm's behavioral simulation captures the heterogeneous firm and household dynamics that central banks increasingly recognise as drivers of inflation, financial stability, and recovery trajectories. Stress-test policy interventions in a model that doesn't assume the answer.
Standard DSGE and VAR models assume equilibrium and smooth adjustment. Macrocosm's behavioral simulation captures the heterogeneous firm and household dynamics that central banks increasingly recognise as drivers of inflation, financial stability, and recovery trajectories. Stress-test policy interventions in a model that doesn't assume the answer.
ASSET MANAGERS
Forecast what standard models miss
Forecast what standard models miss
When economies face novel shocks, extrapolation fails. Macrocosm's bottom-up simulation gives asset managers a clearer view of where GDP, inflation, and employment are heading (and why), even for shocks like an accelerated energy transition, a breakdown in global trade, or a financial crisis.
When economies face novel shocks, extrapolation fails. Macrocosm's bottom-up simulation gives asset managers a clearer view of where GDP, inflation, and employment are heading (and why), even for shocks like an accelerated energy transition, a breakdown in global trade, or a financial crisis.
POLICYMAKERS
Design policies that work for people
Design policies that work for people
Understand how workforces shift across occupations and regions during periods of structural change. Design retraining programs, regional investment, and social protection policy with a model that reflects real mobility constraints.
Understand how workforces shift across occupations and regions during periods of structural change. Design retraining programs, regional investment, and social protection policy with a model that reflects real mobility constraints.
Want to learn more?
Want to learn more?
Contact us to learn how our macroeconomic and labor transition simulator can support your work.
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