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It's Time to Close the Supply Chain Protection Gap

Supply chain disruption costs the global economy an estimated $184 billion a year, yet most businesses are partially or entirely uninsured, and insurers carry accumulated exposure they cannot measure across their portfolios. We set out the four structural barriers that keep this risk from being priced, and how it can be quantified.

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Insights | 2026

Hormuz Closure: Analysis Report

Our team traces the downstream effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure week-by-week across 80 countries. We go beyond aggregate predictions to show the dynamics of shock propagation: which countries and sectors will be affected and when.

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Insights | 2026

Resilient-to-Fragile Transition and Excess Volatility in Supply Chain Networks

We identify the critical point at which supply chains shift from resilient to fragile and demonstrate that supplier diversification can push that threshold back — translating our research into actionable insights about inventory.

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Research | 2025

Agent-Based Modeling in Economics and Finance: Past, Present, and Future

Exploring the history of agent-based modeling, including predicting the 2008 housing bubble, our Chief Scientist Doyne Farmer shows how ABM is the future of economic forecasting.

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2026InsightsIt's Time to Close the Supply Chain Protection GapSupply chain disruption costs the global economy an estimated $184 billion a year, yet most businesses are partially or entirely uninsured, and insurers carry accumulated exposure they cannot measure across their portfolios. We set out the four structural barriers that keep this risk from being priced, and how it can be quantified.↗2026InsightsHormuz Closure: Analysis ReportOur team traces the downstream effects of the Strait of Hormuz closure week-by-week across 80 countries. We go beyond aggregate predictions to show the dynamics of shock propagation: which countries and sectors will be affected and when.↗2026InsightsResilient-to-Fragile Transition and Excess Volatility in Supply Chain NetworksWe identify the critical point at which supply chains shift from resilient to fragile and demonstrate that supplier diversification can push that threshold back — translating our research into actionable insights about inventory.↗2025ResearchAgent-Based Modeling in Economics and Finance: Past, Present, and FutureExploring the history of agent-based modeling, including predicting the 2008 housing bubble, our Chief Scientist Doyne Farmer shows how ABM is the future of economic forecasting.↗2025ResearchA differentiable model of supply-chain shocksBy running agent-based models on GPUs with automatic differentiation, our team opens the door to modeling the entire global supply network at scale with unprecedented speed.↗2025ResearchQuantitative agent-based models: a promising alternative for macroeconomicsDoyne Farmer delves into agent-based approaches that have surpassed traditional forecasts, from a model built on real Washington DC mortgage data to a detailed micro-macro simulation of the broader economy. Explore the unique capabilities of ABMs compared to traditional tools.↗2022ResearchForecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output modelMembers of our team developed a model that accurately predicted the UK's sector-by-sector economic decline during COVID-19, outperforming the Bank of England. Beyond the size of a shock, a firm's inventory levels and production setup were found to determine the propagation path — an insight that redefined supply chain resilience.↗