SUPPLY CHAIN RISK
Quantify the financial impact of supply shocks before they hit
Most risk models treat supply chain disruptions as single shocks in isolation. Macrocosm simulates shocks as cascading ripples through the supply network. Our simulator tracks how disruptions propagate week by week so you can see not just what gets disrupted, but when, by how much, and why.
SUPPLY CHAIN RISK
Quantify the financial impact of supply shocks before they hit
Most risk models treat supply chain disruptions as single shocks in isolation. Macrocosm simulates shocks as cascading ripples through the supply network. Our simulator tracks how disruptions propagate week by week so you can see not just what gets disrupted, but when, by how much, and why.
SUPPLY CHAIN RISK
Quantify the financial impact of supply shocks before they hit
Most risk models treat supply chain disruptions as single shocks in isolation. Macrocosm simulates shocks as cascading ripples through the supply network. Our simulator tracks how disruptions propagate week by week so you can see not just what gets disrupted, but when, by how much, and why.
SUPPLY CHAIN RISK
Quantify the financial impact of supply shocks before they hit
Most risk models treat supply chain disruptions as single shocks in isolation. Macrocosm simulates shocks as cascading ripples through the supply network. Our simulator tracks how disruptions propagate week by week so you can see not just what gets disrupted, but when, by how much, and why.
KEY CAPABILITIES
01
Model a global shock
Feed in a shock — an earthquake, a pandemic, a tariff — and see how the impact travels along the supply chain week by week, from the point of disruption outward.
02
Quantify financial impact
Get output loss estimates at firm, sector, country, or regional granularity. This includes the second- and third-order effects that equilibrium models are structurally unable to see, calibrated against real disruption events and validated on observed data.
03
Discover hidden exposure
Find vulnerable firms and sectors sitting in the cascade path. The firms hit hardest by a shock are often several links removed from it. We determine exposure from network position rather than proximity.
04
Measure timing & recovery
Anticipate impacts before they strike. The model runs at weekly granularity to show when the cascade reaches each sector, when losses peak, and how long the recovery tail extends.
KEY CAPABILITIES
01
Generate forecasts for GDP, inflation, employment, and financial stability using bottom-up simulation of firm and household behaviour — not statistical extrapolation from historical patterns. Forecasts reflect structural dynamics, not just momentum.
Forecast key macro indicators from behavioral first principles
02
Capture how economies respond to shocks in ways that aggregate models cannot — including tipping points, amplification effects, and recovery paths that diverge from historical precedent. Particularly relevant for scenarios with no close historical analog.
Model non-linear responses to shocks
03
Simulate how workers move — or can't — between occupations given real skills proximity, geographic constraints, and labour market structure. Surface which groups are least able to adapt, not just which industries are declining.
Model occupational mobility and labour market transitions
04
Ground macroeconomic forecasts in the sectoral and firm-level dynamics that produce them — linking output, employment, and price forecasts to the industries, balance sheet conditions, and workforce transitions that drive aggregate outcomes.
Connect macro outcomes to sectoral and labour dynamics
WHO USES IT
INSURERS
INSURERS
Measure and manage new risk
Measure and manage new risk
See the losses that don't show up until claims arrive. Macrocosm maps supplier network exposure at firm, sector, and portfolio level for underwriting, accumulation, stress testing, and regulatory reporting. Applicable across primary carriers, reinsurers, and Lloyd's syndicates.
See the losses that don't show up until claims arrive. Macrocosm maps supplier network exposure at firm, sector, and portfolio level for underwriting, accumulation, stress testing, and regulatory reporting. Applicable across primary carriers, reinsurers, and Lloyd's syndicates.
See the losses that don't show up until claims arrive. Macrocosm maps supplier network exposure at firm, sector, and portfolio level for underwriting, accumulation, stress testing, and regulatory reporting. Applicable across primary carriers, reinsurers, and Lloyd's syndicates.
ASSET MANAGERS
ASSET MANAGERS
Stress-test portfolio exposure
Stress-test portfolio exposure
Identify which holdings sit in the cascade path of a given shock prior to disruption. Quantify exposure by sector, geography, and counterparty before it appears in earnings.
Identify which holdings sit in the cascade path of a given shock prior to disruption. Quantify exposure by sector, geography, and counterparty before it appears in earnings.
POLICYMAKERS
POLICYMAKERS
Model real-economy impact
Model real-economy impact
Understand transmission mechanisms and recovery timelines for geopolitical scenarios, trade disruptions, and infrastructure failures. Inform strategic reserve policy, trade diversification, and crisis response.
Understand transmission mechanisms and recovery timelines for geopolitical scenarios, trade disruptions, and infrastructure failures. Inform strategic reserve policy, trade diversification, and crisis response.
Ready to see it in action?
Ready to see it in action?
We work with insurance companies, asset managers, and policymakers to apply the supply chain shock simulator to their specific portfolios, geographies, and risk questions.
Join Our Newsletter
Join Our Newsletter
Join Our Newsletter
Join Our Newsletter
Join Our Newsletter